Four Major Hazards of the Jinsha River Tiger Leaping Gorge Hydropower Project
A blockbuster report by Chinese geologist Fan Xiao uncovers the deceit, censorship and raw force at play in the resurrection of a massive dam project in a geologically complex region.
Foreword by Probe International
The topic of China’s rampant and unchecked hydropower development in zones and regions of high seismic risk is once again on the table after a series of powerful earthquakes rocked the southern Tibetan plateau in early January. The quakes follow on the heels of news China plans to revive a controversial hydropower project in the geologically complex area.
The scale of this proposal has reignited concerns about the region’s suitability to play host to such a high-stakes risk.
The report in English we present here by renowned Chinese geologist Fan Xiao—published on October 22, 2024 in Chinese—shines a light on the forces at play that made this proposal untenable when it first emerged as a potent consideration in 2004. Known then as the Tiger Leaping Gorge Hydropower Project, Fan Xiao’s analysis demonstrates why the undertaking was and remains a resounding “NO” on every conceivable level: geologically, environmentally, economically, and socially.
Layered into the core of this assessment is a development of another sort: the opening up of China’s burgeoning environmental movement that has since been buried—not by the inundation of land for the creation of an artificial lake—but by the rule of Xi Jinping and his crushing impact on the nation’s civil liberties.
To that end, Fan Xiao’s gift for demystifying complex geological forces and interrelated hazards in the context of large dam construction is as much a geological exposé, as it is an invaluable account of social history. We see how a citizen-led campaign prompted Chinese authorities 18 years ago to suspend the Tiger Leaping Gorge project. The decision represented a shining victory for the country’s grassroots environmental organizations, social media and general public, and also revealed a moment of government flexibility: officials responding to the will of the people. That window has since been all but sealed by Xi Jinping’s rise to power, his crackdown on NGOs, his near-total control over social media, and his implementation of China’s Big Brother mass surveillance network.
Fan Xiao’s analysis further uncovers the deceit, censorship and raw force at play in the resurrection of what has been rebranded as the Longpan Hydropower Project, and the lie of what the Chinese Communist Party refers to as the “rule of law.” Incompatible with legal standards, national policies and public interest, the driving force behind Longpan is greed intensified by China’s current economic woes.
There is no reason to justify its construction other than political gains.
Fan Xiao’s report is available in full at our Probe International website here:
A PDF version of this report is available for download:
The cover image for this foreword was created by generative AI.
Patricia Adams, an economist, is executive director of China watchdog Probe International.